As you’re probably aware, the Fed has a hard time spotting asset bubbles. Just as there was no housing bubble in 2006 according to the honorable and exceptionally “courageous” Ben Bernanke, there’s no bubble in equities today and certainly no ZIRP-induced fixed income bubble either.
The other thing the Eccles cabal has trouble spotting – and this is of course inextricably linked to an inability to spot speculative excess – is inflation.
Nevermind the fact that housing costs have gone parabolic in places like California and New York and pay no attention to corporate “slack fill” and “weight out” tactics that mask 72% inflation on everything from deodorant, to ground pepper, to Soda Stream refill units, and certainly do not read too much into hyperinflation in the high end art world where $170 million Picassos and Modiglianis clearly indicate that QE-driven rallies in capital markets are driving bored billionaires to push the price of trophy assets into the stratosphere, just stay calm and take solace in the fact that according to the headline numbers, inflation is non-existent.
Of course you may have a hard time swallowing that (no pun intended) today as you sit down for a hearty holiday feast because your turkey cost nearly 7% more than it did last year. In fact, the whole meal crossed $50 for the first time in history in 2015 and as you can see from the following chart, the total cost is up triple digits since the late eighties.
So give thanks to the Fed for your meal and remember, it’s misleading, negligible core CPI prints that allow the Fed to persist in ZIRP on the way to restoring your 401k which they helped destroy in 2008.
Oh, and while dinner may be $50 today, it’s worth noting that in 1909 – so, before the Fed – it was 50 cents:
