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What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017
With 2016 still fresh in most investors’ minds, and questions about 2017 pressing, here is a summary, courtesy of Goldman’s Allison Nathan, of where Goldman believes we closed out 2016, what is in...
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Goldman Raises March Rate Hike Odds After January Inflation Spike
For those who said a March rate hike looks increasingly likely after today’s blistering CPI report, which saw inflation printing at the highest in nearly 5 years, you are not alone: moments ago...
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Stagflation Strikes As US Consumer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace In 5 Years
After the hotter-than-expected PPI print, Consumer Prices confirmed that inflation is running hot with the fastest rise since Feb 2012. Notably core CPI (at 2.2%) has been above The Fed’s mandated 2%...
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Gold Surges, USDJPY, Yields Slide As Markets Finally Respond To Latest Set Of...
With markets shut on Good Friday, even as the one-two knockout punch of the worst monthly core CPI print in 7 years hit… … coupled with a miss in March retail sales, which suffered their biggest two...
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Markets All Too Quiet Ahead Of Inflation, Retail Sales Data
Asian stocks and S&P futures are both feeling the weather this morning, while European stocks are little changed as traders have decided to hold back until today’s key US CPI and retail sales data...
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Albert Edwards: “What On Earth Is Going On With US Wages”
When Albert Edwards predicted in late 2016 that a surge in wage inflation was imminent, we were confused by this prediction from the world’s preeminent deflationist: after all, not only had not a...
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Goldman: The Fed Will Hike This Week, But Here Are “The Two Most Interesting...
On Wedensday the FOMC will hike rates by another 25 bps – an event which the Fed Funds market prices in with near virtual certainty, while Goldman calls the rate increase “extremely likely” – and only...
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“FOMC Drift” In Full Effect As Global Stocks Rise; S&P Futures Hit New...
With last Friday’s “tech wreck” now a distant memory, this morning the “FOMC Drift” described yesterday, which “guarantees” higher stock prices and a lower dollar heading into the Fed announcement is...
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“ECB Or Not To Be”: A Preview Of What Mario Draghi Will Say
Looking at today’s main event, the much anticipated ECB announcement in which Draghi may (or may not) announce a hawkish shift to the cental bank’s policies and/or reveal the bank’s tapering plans,...
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Bank Of Japan Leaves Policy Unchanged As Expected – Admits Defeat On Deflation
Japan's long and sordid dance with unconventional monetary policy continues. With most analysts expecting a 'nothingburger' from Kuroda (though some hinting at the potential for shock-and-awe), The BOJ...
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Southern California Median Home Price Doubles In Five Years
Submitted by Jeff Paul The US government likes to pretend that the rising cost of living is under control. People in Southern California know better. According to a new report in the Los Angeles Times,...
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Dow Set To Open Above 22,000 As Global Stocks Levitate Higher
Welcome to August: you may be surprised to learn that S&P 500 futures are once again levitating, higher by 0.3%, and tracking European and Asian markets. Asian equities traded higher across the...
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Small Cap Rout Is Flashing Red Flag For US Economy
The post-election small cap bounce in US stocks has now been completely erased as it seems tax-reforms have now been entirely priced-out of markets. However, as BofAML notes, the demise of small cap...
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“I Was Wrong”: Albert Edwards Finds Something That Has Never Happened Before
At the start of the year, we were surprised when SocGen’s Albert “Ice Age” Edwards, the biggest perma-deflationist on Wall Street, flipped his outlook on the US economy, and said he now expected a fast...
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FX Week Ahead: Discretion And Common Sense Not Easy For “The Machines”
Submitted by Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA of fxdailyterminal.com Coming off the back of a mixed payrolls report which saw the headline number recording a negative balance for the first time in...
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ECB Will Avoid A Taper Tantrum Today, But It’s Running Low On Ammunition
Following up to our earlier preview of today’s critical ECB announcement, here is Bloomberg macro commentator Tanvir Sundhu, who says not to sweat what Draghi says today as the ECB will be able to...
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US Futures Rebound After Disappointing Chinese, European Data
Yesterday’s sharp Chinese selloff is now a distant memory after the BTFDers emerged, and this morning U.S. equity futures are once again levitating as the FOMC begins its two-day policy meeting,...
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Eurozone Inflation Unexpectedly Cools
In the latest headache for Mario Draghi, the Eurozone's closely watched CPI weakened to 1.40% year-on-year in October 2017 versus expectations of 1.50% and a reading of 1.50% the previous month. As a...
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Global Stocks Tumble, Asia Plunges On Chinese Commodity Carnage
The euphoria of the past month has ended with a thud and BTFDers are strangely missing as the commodity chill out of China (which overnight became full blown carnage), has unleashed a global risk-off...
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Mark Carney Forced To Explain Surge In UK Inflation To Highest In Almost 6 Years
The market expected Mark Carney to avoid it but it was just not meant to be. The BoE Governor will suffer the ignominy of a bizarre tradition of having to write a letter to the Chancellor of the...
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